When asked recently by an insolvency practitioner to give a view on the potential goodwill value linked of the name of a city club, the initial response was: ‘Oh, that’s an interesting one, we’ll have a think and get back to you.’ So think we did.
Now the reality is that getting some sort of payment for intangibles on a club or bar is quite unusual, unless it’s a well-known and established brand in a busy city centre area. Some sort of leasehold premium is the approach most commonly applied by insolvency practitioners.
But never let it be said that at Metis we don’t explore the ever-thorny subject of making the intangible tangible. So our thought was – how could you measure the potential goodwill in a club? Would it be:
• Years of trading
• Customer database (not common to most pubs)
• Marketing / advertising spend?
All valid to some extent, but in the age of the internet could there be another way to assess goodwill, the strength or value of a brand, as well as recognition and loyalty?
How about Facebook®, MySpace® or Bebo® friends? Yes, even pubs have pages on popular social networking websites. Sites that have a defined number of people happy to be classed as ‘friends’ of the pub (hopefully a repeat customer) can potentially receive tens of thousands of views from those friends or other visitors, constituting an online community for them.
Could these sites provide some sort of metric of popularity? If a few Glasgow pubs/ clubs popular with young people had between 1000 and 10,000 friends, could this be something to take into account when assessing goodwill and brand reputation?
The concept of valuing intangible assets such as relationships by substitution, was neatly presented in Chris Anderson’s latest book “Free: The Future of a Radical Price”. Anderson offered an interesting take on monetising the non-monetary.
Earlier in 2009, Burger King®’s ‘Whopper® Sacrifice Campaign’ gave Facebook® users the opportunity to “de-friend” (remove their name from a person’s page) ten Facebook® friends in return for a voucher for a Whopper®. After a week or so, the social networking site asked Burger King® to close the applet as it breached their privacy agreement (the applet notified those “de-friended” of the action as opposed to Facebook®’s normal non-disclosure procedure) but by then nearly 250,000 relationships had been traded.
So what was the transactional value of this and where does this lead? One keen blogger, Jason Kottke (www.kottle.org) took up the challenge and did the calculation.
Facebook® has approximately 150 million users with on average 100 friends. When you de-friend in Facebook®, two relationships are lost, so each user has effectively 50 unique relationship units. Burger King® asked participants to give up 10 friends for a Whopper® priced at $2.40 therefore the “friendship” cost per user is $12 (or five Whopper®’s). Scale this up with 150m users and you reach a valuation of approximately $1.8bn.
So is Facebook®’s value $1.8bn? In terms of relationship capital it might be, but as Anderson writes in his book, if we compare this value to the estimated $10 - $15bn placed on it by investors (Microsoft paid $240 million for a 1.6% stake in late 2007) where does the other $8bn or so value come from? Not at this point from revenue generated, so most likely goodwill – of the future monetisation of these online relationships. Interestingly, an alleged leaked internal document highlighted a revised internal valuation of $3.7bn in July 2008.
This all raises an interesting question: Has the economic downturn proven that the Whopper® substitution model to be more accurate?
Back with our city club, the question of measuring customer goodwill in an insolvency situation remains. However, there is no doubt that customer relationships have long been monetised (for example, paying for databases in trading or insolvent transactions) so it does not seem too far-fetched to think that virtual customers – from Facebook® friends to Twitter® followers – could well be factored into a valuation equation to help make the intangible a little more tangible.